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Macro Tides Monthly Report 03 January 2021
Economists are forecasting a strong rebound in 2021 especially in the second half of the year. By the end of 2021 economists expect S&P 500 earnings to climb to $170.00 from $140.00 in 2020 and $161.00 in 2019. Much of this forecast is dependent on the speed of vaccinations and how quickly the American consumer can return to their ‘normal’ spending habits. With the S&P 500 trading above 3700, it is sporting a forward P/E of 22.00 which is the second most expensive level since 1929. Investors are completely onboard assuming that vaccinations will proceed without any meaningful issues and herd immunity will be achieved by mid-year. The stock market is priced for perfection, just as the country may be entering a Perfect COVID-19 Storm in January that may extend well into February. ....

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