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US Markets Stall Near End Of July As Global Markets Retreat: Are We Ready For An August Surprise? – Investment Watch investmentwatchblog.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from investmentwatchblog.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION August 3, 2021 | US Markets Statll Near End of July as Global Markets Retreat – Are We Ready for an August Surprise? Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author of the book: Technical Trading Mastery. Chris has developed trading strategies that incorporate technical analysis, position-sizing, and risk management to boost performance while reducing portfolio risk. One thing that seems to be certain in the markets right now is the past hyper-bullish trending which appears to have weakened since early 2021. As a result, the longer-term Custom Indexes we use to help gauge and understand market trends are showing a very clear weakening of trends. ....
We recently completed some interesting research related to one of our newest Custom Indexes – the Commodities to Smart Cash Index (C2SC Heat Index) – weighted by the US Dollar and VIX. We’ve been reviewing this new index for months watching it to see how it reacts to various trends in Lumber, Gold, Treasury Yields, the Smart Cash Index, and other weighted values. Recently, we added the Fed Funds Rate to this chart and suddenly things took on a different perspective. We had drawn horizontal lines on the Commodities to Smart Cash index highlighting historical high, low, and confluence price levels. Historically, when we see a chart that channels in a sideways range, one can often identify high and low price thresholds while also trying to find a confluence level (where a continued rise or decline in price is likely to continue). We can see how the US Fed reacted to rising inflationary concerns almost immediately as the C2SC Index rose near or ....
A recent Forbes article highlights the incredible increase in market leverage since the start of the COVID-19 crisis. There has never been a time in recent history where market leverage has reached these extreme levels. Additionally, highly leveraged market peaks are typically associated with asset bubbles. The easy money policies and global central bank actions have prompted one of the longest easy money market rallies in history. Historically low interest rates, US Federal Reserve and global central bank asset-buying programs, and extended overnight credit support have prompted some traders and investors to move into a more highly leveraged position expecting the rally to stay endless. Although, the reality of the global market trends may be starting to cause traders and investors to become a bit unsettled. Precious Metals, Utilities, and Bonds have all started reacting to perceived fear related to this extended bullish rally trend recen ....
In this second part of our exploration of the recent US Dollar rally and what it may be reacting to in relation to the current US stock market highs and continued rally, we will explore some of the underlying factors that are translating into US Dollar strength while the US stock market continues to push higher. In the first part of this research article, we highlighted the US Dollar reaction to the 2008-09 credit market crisis and how the US Dollar actually started to bottom/rally in early 2008 – just as the rollover top in the US stock markets continued to setup. The way the US Dollar reacts to stress factors in the global markets is to strengthen as a safe haven as capital is constantly seeking the best environment for investment and profits. When the markets enter a period of turmoil, the US Dollar typically begins to strengthen before the global markets really begin to react to the fear or turmoil. ....