don t say gay bill. it prohibits gender identity through the third grade in florida s elementary schools. on march 7, chapek told employees as we ve seen time and again, corporate statements do very little to change outcomes or minds. instead, they re often weaponized by one side or the other to further divide and inflame. he said he did not want the company to become a political football. at that time, more than 150 companies had already signed a letter opposing the legislation. two days later, chapek changed course, amid widespread outrage from disney employees and fans. he called governor desantis to express disappointment with the law. on the same day at an annual shareholders meeting he said our originally approach no matter how much attention didn t quite get the job done. he further apologized at a town hall for staff on march 21. on march 28th, desantis signed the bill into law. we ve seen corporate activism, guns after parkland, social justice after george floyd. the
who are in states that biden won by less than 2% are really going to be in danger. simon, what i think i hear you saying is that this is really not an issue-oriented analysis. this is you looking at historic models and then fast forwarding to the way things should probably continue, unless there s an aberration. is that fair? that s fair. i think it s important to note there have been a couple trends in american politics over the last decade that have really intensified and that are causing huge problems for democrats in the senate going forward. even beyond 2024, in the next decade. and the first trend is education polarization. you know, over the last four years we ve seen noneducated voters moving strong towards the republican party. and college educated voters moving towards the democratic party. and the senate tends to overweight the votes of people who didn t go to college. this has created a bias in the
and crime, it will be a trifecta that guarantees that republicans take control of the house and probably the senate, too. history and conventional wisdom are on the side of the gop in 2022. but according to an analysis by my next guest, what follows in 2024 could be even worse for democrats. in this piece, at the slow boring blog, democrats are sleepwalking into a senate disaster, author simon baselon has one the numbers for the past deck indicates and for democrats it s not pretty. simon writes for the stack and simon is at yale. simon, with regards to the midterms you say there s been a nine-shift point to the right. explain. yeah, so, you know, joe biden won the 2020 election by 4.5%.
senate to the democratic party to the window democrats now to win 53% of the vote to win a majority. this is a huge ask of any party and buts democratic senate fortunes in a bad place. i encourage people to read what you ve written. but here s the takeaway. the takeaway that i m gleaning is this looks like, meaning the midterm cycle, a tough year for democrats for the reasons that i articulated. and you are here to say what comes in 2024 could be even worse. right. and i think it s important to note that even with a pretty decent performance electorally by joe biden in 2024, a ton of these democratic incumbents who got elected in years good for democrats like 2006, 2012, 2018, are still going to be in danger. simon, i buried the lede. i said you re an under grad at yale. you re a freshman at yale. that s right. that s unbelievable.