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Few realistic scenarios left to limit global warming to 1 5°C

Of the over 400 climate scenarios assessed in the 1.5°C report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), only around 50 scenarios avoid significantly overshooting 1.5°C. Of those only around 20 make realistic assumptions on mitigation options, for instance the rate and scale of carbon removal from the atmosphere or extent of tree planting, a new study shows. All 20 scenarios need to pull at least one mitigation lever at challenging rather than reasonable levels.

France generalRyu koideDaniel klingenfeldTimothym lentonLila warszawskiDirk messnerGail whitemanOwen gaffneyJohan rockstrHans joachim schellnhuberPeter schlosserDaniela jacobTim lentonElmar krieglerNebojsa nakicenovicKazuhiko takeuchi

Few realistic scenarios left to limit global warming to 1 5°C - Sonnenseite - Ökologische Kommunikation mit Franz Alt

Few realistic scenarios left to limit global warming to 1.5°C Of the over 400 climate scenarios assessed in the 1.5°C report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), only around 50 scenarios avoid significantly overshooting 1.5°C. © Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 2021 | Greenhouse gas missions reduction pathways to achieve net zero. Cutout from fig.1a, Warszawski et al (2021) Of those only around 20 make realistic assumptions on mitigation options, for instance the rate and scale of carbon removal from the atmosphere or extent of tree planting, a new study shows. All 20 scenarios need to pull at least one mitigation lever at “challenging” rather than “reasonable” levels, according to the analysis. Hence the world faces a high degree of risk of overstepping the 1.5°C limit. The realistic window for meeting the 1.5°C target is very rapidly closing.

France generalRyu koideDaniel klingenfeldTimothym lentonLila warszawskiDirk messnerGail whitemanOwen gaffneyJohan rockstrHans joachim schellnhuberPeter schlosserDaniela jacobTim lentonElmar krieglerNebojsa nakicenovicKazuhiko takeuchi

Few realistic scenarios left to limit global warming to 1 5°C

Of the over 400 climate scenarios assessed in the 1.5°C report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), only around 50 scenarios avoid significantly overshooting 1.5°C. Of those only around 20 make realistic assumptions on mitigation options, for instance the rate and scale of carbon removal from the atmosphere or extent of tree planting, a new study shows. All 20 scenarios need to pull at least one mitigation lever at challenging rather than reasonable levels.

France generalRyu koideDaniel klingenfeldTimothym lentonLila warszawskiDirk messnerGail whitemanOwen gaffneyJohan rockstrHans joachim schellnhuberPeter schlosserDaniela jacobTim lentonElmar krieglerNebojsa nakicenovicKazuhiko takeuchi

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