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How Rising Interest Rates Could Affect Emerging Markets

By Philipp Engler, Roberto Piazza and Galen Sher
Rapid vaccine rollout in the United States and passage of its $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package have boosted its expected economic recovery.
In anticipation, longer-term US interest rates have risen rapidly, with the rate on 10-year Treasury securities going from under 1 percent at the start of the year to over 1.75 percent in mid-March.
A similar surge has occurred in the United Kingdom. In January and February, interest rates also rose somewhat in the euro area and Japan before central banks there stepped in with easier monetary policy.
Our research in the latest World Economic Outlook finds that for emerging markets, what matters is the reason for the rise in US interest rates. ....

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