american dream. he obtained 40% of the vote in kansas in 2014 running as an independent against republican incoumbent senator pat roberts. greg, why if 45% of the country say i m an i is there a 0.0 in the house of representatives? well, that s a great question. you know, if you look at the re-election rates for members of congress, they run in the high 90s, and yet congress routinely has a 15% approval rating so you have to ask yourself the question. and the answer is multiple. but number one is obviously they rig the rules to make sure no one can compete with them. we ve been working with organizations to try to change those things. but maybe more importantly is there are just institutional and structural barriers to independents succeeding. the whole political economy has been built around serving democrats and republicans and that s really what the centrist project is trying to change.
our data guru analyzed polling going back to 2010 to help us understand this trend. education is a key measure. in 2010, 41% of college graduates called themselves republican, while 39% called themselves democrats. a six-point jump, that s a big swing overall. democrats now have the edge with college educated voters. republicans have seen a five-point jump with that group while democrats have seen a five-point drop. also a pretty significant swing. this education gap follows some geographic trends that we ve been following that help us explain why some of the republican districts have the highest re-election rates. now some other areas where republicans have seen the most growth, men over the age of 50
republican. and a 6 point jump, that s a big swing overall when you look ate. democrats now have the edge with college educated voters. republicans have seen a 5 point jump with that group while democrats have seen a 5 point drop. also a pretty significant twing. this education gap follows some geographic trends that we ve been following that help us explain why some of the republican districts have the highest re-election rates. now some other areas where republicans have seen the most growth, men over the age of 50 up five points. rural voters up five points and those between the ages of 50 and 64 will more republican than years ago. a jump in those making 30 to $50,000 per year, smack dab many the middle class there. not just millennials but genz
senate, at least is not conservative enough. it s that there aren t enough republicans there and mitch mcconnell isn t running the place, that s the problem and voters get that. what s also interesting here is that voters realize it s very important in these cases, particularly in kentucky and in georgia, to feel, strong state wide candidates because the democrats in those states. the democrats are fielding strong candidates, they re in kentucky, grimes has good name id, secretary of state, plenty of money. and the same down in georgia where michelle nunn is going to be the democratic nominee, again has good name id and can raise money. you re saying that mitch mcconnell is the strongest candidate. i think basically he might be a point or two behind grimes, which basically means he s been an incumbent for a long time. it s not great, but he s typically had tough re-election
enough republicans there. and mitch mcconnell isn t running the place. that s the problem. and voters get that. and i think what s also interesting here is that voters realized it was very important in some of these races, particularly in kentucky and in georgia, to field strong statewide candidates, because the democrats in those states, republicans are pretty confident about both states. but the democrats are fielding strong candidates. there in connecticut, grimes had good name i.d. plenty of money. and the same in georgia where michelle nunn is going to be a democratic nominee, daughter of a former senator and can raise money. wait a minute, jason. you re saying that mitch mcconnell is the strongest candidate. he s only i think basically a point or two behind grimes, which basically means they re tied and he has been an incumbent for a long time. and his popularity in the state is not that great. it s not great. but he typically had tough re-election rates. he doesn t fail.