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Focus on some of the key races that will decide control of congress. so, tonight it s battleground ohio. cnn senior data reporter, harry enten is at the magic wall for us. harry, what is the latest on the ohio senate race? hey alison, let s take a look at the situation in ohio in this tight senate race. right now, what we have is republican j.d. vance with a slight advantage over tim ryan 47% to 45%, but that s well within the margin of error. that being said, i m a little bit skeptical that this race will end up this close as this. why? two reasons. first off, let s look at past polling errors in ohio. how much better to the gop do better than the final ohio polls indicated? in 2020 president, gop candidate did seven points better, to 2018 gubernatorial race the gop did six point better. the same thing in 2016, and the 2014 governors race look at that, the gop candidate did ten ....
Are we seeing a repeat now of past polling error? here with me to help understand the polling, landscape cornell belcher, a pollster and democratic strategist. for now, there s this piece out today that got a lot of attention. they said, look, certain places wisconsin, for one example, we have seen repeated systematic polling errors in which the polls, the public polls have failed to adequately capture republican strength. they ve missed by six or seven points. we ve seen the same, to a lesser extent, in pennsylvania, michigan, and making the case that a lot of the warning signs there that there s something similar going on here now. what do you think of that? first of all, i m a little bit cautious about this entire topic. but that said, let s dive into it a little bit deeper, and hopefully, we can unpack a little bit. let s start with your opening segment, and where you went through several races, and this conversation, it was a democrat ....
Ranked choice voting race. so it gave voters the opportunity to say hey, i don t really like sarah palin, i want to rank her third, a of the democrat. so a lot of people did that. so there s a lot of these unusual scenarios too that are affecting things. and i think there s a really important thing that i wrote about yesterday, is that we have seen a lot of polling errors in recent years. even in 2018 when democrats did well, a lot of the senate race polling overestimated how well democrats were going to do. that also is sort of the shadow that is lingering. it s a good word of caution. one thing we do know that s happening is the speech tonight from joe biden. it harkens back to what we heard from him very often on the campaign trail, which is the battle for the soul of america and the way the white house is describing it, there s these extremist forces, they re careful to say it s not all republicans, but the ones that style themselves after former president trump, they re a threat ....
And they stole your freedom. worse yet, governor kemp could have prevented this, but he failed you. please join me in supporting senator david purdue for governor. i mean, they are all in on the election fraud lie. which arguably, may have lost republicans the two senate seats in the special election last year. what is it looking like in terms of this play book this time around? it s not working for david purdue. i mean, you were covering that a little bit earlier on. look, this is a fox news poll from last week. look at this match between kemp and purdue. brian kemp, look at that. a 32 point advantage. 32 points. polling errors happen, but 32-point polling errors don t happen often. there s a 50% plus threshold. brian kemp well above that. look at the momentum. it went from an 11 point lead in march. you might be saying what s going ....
That s a possibility given the past polling errors that we ve seen with this 95% confidence in a poll. even at 8 points anyone could really win at that point. yes. the trump endorsement, j.d. vance really, really wanted this, this is a guy who actually said not so nice things about trump in 2016, tried to reverse it all for now. what has the endorsement done? it s done a lot. i will point out that josh mandel had really, really, really wanted that trump endorsement, was arguing a long time ago that trump had won the election when that is not true joe biden won the election. this is a fox news poll, the late april numbers that we just saw to the early march numbers. look at vance s overall share of primary support, now it s 23%, back in early march vans looked dead in the water he was just at 11%, more than doubling his percentage of the vote. more than that remember primaries are not just about support they re also about turnout. look at the percentage of vance voters extremely ....