confirms he s skipping wednesday s debate. we ll talk all things debate in a moment. first let s bring in nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki. break down the new numbers for us. you mentioned the big hill trump s opponents have to climb in the first of the nation caucus state. in our nbc news/ des moines register poll, trump running at 42%, more than doubling up his nearest rival, 19%. no one else in double digits. tim scott the best of the rest at 9%. you see a scattering for the rest right there. that is a big lead for donald trump. it s not the biggest we ve seen a republican have at this point pre iowa caucuses, but it is among the largest leads we ve seen in polling on the republican side in iowa at this point. so that s trump s lead right now. one of the things pouring it in iowa, the evangelical vote is