has artfully managed expectations throughout this entire year, but just now because of his apparent strength, because of his team s confidence and because of these polls that show him in first, expectations are now starting to rise that mitt romney s going to win the iowa caucuses. if he were to fall to third behind either santorum and paul or paul and santorum, that would become a problem at this point especially if it was a distant third. that would hurt him going into new hampshire and might throw the door open to a more unexpected outcome than what i think most people are looking at right now which is romney wins iowa, new hampshire and pretty much puts the nomination away. howard, someone always gets left behind in iowa this they just can t make it up and continue to campaign. who will we not be talking about this time next week? probably michele bachmann for sure. and don t forget, she s another person who didn t even bother to submit signatures to try to get on the ballot in
paul all took their turns in the spotlight. and none of them it seems necessarily has the clout to beat romney. i think ron paul s got a shot at it. i wouldn t dismiss it. i think it s possible that his numbers are being underrepresented in some of these polls. and if santorum can consolidate all of the cultural conservatives, he s got a shot at winning the thing.ç michele bachmann seems to be collapsing. her party, her state co-chair just announced a few hours ago that he was switching fromachmann to ron paul. it s good news for paul and also santorum. rick perry had a moment of resurgence the last week or so but it doesn t seemed to have gained a lot of traction. it s possible if perry collapses and bachmann collapses that santorum will be the winner of the non-mitt romney, non-ron
the non-mitt romney, non-ron paul vote, and that is enough to win the thing. john, what do you think santorum has to achieve in iowa to put the future of this race in serious doubt? well, i think howard s right. certainly if i think those scenarios are all long shot scenarios that howard laid out. i don t think they re totally implausible. i think bachmann s campaign is going to collapse pretty quick now given where she is. we ve been wondering what was going to happen with the cultural conservative christian right vote for a long time, whether it would coalesce. santorum now seems to be the most likely person around whom it will coalesce. you can just imagine him either winning the caucuses or coming in second. if rick santorum, if he comes in first, that cç an interesting outcome. especially if it means that mitt romney finishes third. i would actually say if ron paul wins the caucuses and rick santorum finishes second, the problem for romney is that he
expectations throughout this entire year, but just now because of his apparent strength, because of his team s confidence and because of theseç polls that show him in first, expectations are now starting to rise that mitt romney s going to win the iowa caucuses. if he were to fall to third behind either santorum and paul or paul and santorum, that would become a problem at this point especially if it was a distant third. that would hurt him going into new hampshire and might throw the door open to a more unexpected outcome than what i think most people are looking at right now which is romney wins iowa, new hampshire and pretty much puts the nomination away. howard, someone always gets left behind in iowa this they just can t make it up and continue to campaign. who will we not be talking about this time next week? probably michele bachmann for sure. and don t forget, she s another person who didn t even bother to submit signatures to try to get on the ballot in virginia.