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Long Term Downtrend in GDP
By definition a recession occurs when GDP declines in two consecutive quarters, which is one of the reasons why all recessions are not created equal. In 1970 and 1974 GDP contracted by a modest -0.32% and -0.54%, minor hick-ups compared to the 1982 decline of -1.80%. The 1990 recession was shallow as GDP only fell by -0.11%. In 2001 GDP actually rose by +1.00% but during the year there were two consecutive quarters in which GDP was lower so it was technically ruled a recession. In 2009 GDP shrank by -2.54%, which was the largest annual decline since the post World War II plunge of -11.6% in 1946. ....

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