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Bundesliga | Bundesliga Match Facts Analysis: Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund compared ahead of Der Klassiker


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xGoals: Bayern and Lewandowski score too many goals…
Bayern, for example, have scored many more goals than they should have this season, and that s not simply the opinion of their opponents! The Expected Goals model - the probability every shot has of beating the goalkeeper - proves it. Bayern have already scored 67 Bundesliga goals this season, but according to their xGoals value they should have only scored 47.5 - an overperformance of 19.5.
Second by this measure are Bayer Leverkusen, who have a positive difference of nine. Third-best Wolfsburg have scored four more goals than their xG might suggest. Bayern s opponents on Saturday, Dortmund, meanwhile, are only 10th league-wide in this particular classification, with an overperformance of 1.3. Hansi Flick s team are nothing if not extremely efficient. ....

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