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Bulls Buy Stocks, As Fed Starts Talk Of Taper


Crashes Matter
Financial advisors regularly tell clients that since the market grew 6% annually since 1900. Therefore, that is what returns will be in the future. The chart below shows $100,000 invested at 6% annually from 2000 or 2007.
Unfortunately, it didn’t work out that way. 
During the past 20-years, the annual return for stocks has been just 4.96% annualized. Since the peak of 2007, returns have annualized roughly 8.14%. Over the next decade, current valuations suggest average returns will return to 2% or less.
For boomers who start in 2000, whose financial plans assume high return rates to offset a savings shortfall, they are now well short of their retirement goals.  ....

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All Inflation Is Transitory


All Inflation Is Transitory
As my colleague
“Inflation jumped as predicted, and so was the Fed comment about transitory.
As Mish discusses, inflation depends much on how you measure it and who it impacts. However, inflation is and remains an always
“transient factor in the economy. As shown, there is a high correlation between economic growth and inflation. As such, given the economy will quickly return to sub-2% growth over the next 24-months, inflation pressures will also subside.
Significantly, given the economy is roughly comprised of 70% consumption, sharp spikes in inflation slows consumption
(higher prices lead to less quantity), thereby slowing economic growth. Such is particularly when inflation impacts things the bottom 80% of the population, which live paycheck-to-paycheck primarily, consume the most. The table below shows the current annual percentage change in the various categories. ....

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All Inflation Is Transitory... The Fed Will Be Late Again


“The market is trading well into 3-standard deviations above the 50-dma, and is overbought by just about every measure. 
Such suggests a short-term ‘cooling-off’ period is likely. With the weekly ‘buy signals’ intact, the markets should hold above key support levels during the next consolidation phase.”
 
“As shown above, that is what is currently occurring. While the market remains in a very tight range, the “money flow” sell signal (middle panel) is reversing quickly. Importantly, note that the money flows (histogram) are rapidly declining on rallies which is a concern.”
While the 
“sell signal” remains intact, not surprisingly, the breakout above the consolidation on Thursday failed, with the selloff on Friday putting the market back where it started the week. Furthermore, the MACD  ....

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Market Continues Its Rally As Earnings Season Starts


 “money flow buy signal” back to levels normally associated with the end of 
“buying stampedes.” With 
“sell signal” next week.
Specifically, I stated:
“The market is trading well into 3-standard deviations above the 50-dma, and is overbought by just about every measure. Such suggests a short-term “cooling-off” period is likely. With the weekly “buy signals” intact, the markets should hold above key support levels during the next consolidation phase.” 
It is worth noting that 
“key support” is the 50-dma which is currently almost 6% lower than Friday’s close. Again, with all indicators extremely extended, a correction of some sort is likely.  ....

Mish Shedlock , Morgan Stanley , Census Bureau , Emerging Markets , Small Caps , Advance Retail Sales , மோர்கன் ஸ்டான்லி , மக்கள் தொகை கணக்கெடுப்பு பணியகம் , வளர்ந்து வருகிறது சந்தைகள் , சிறிய தொப்பிகள் ,