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Perry World House turns 5 | Penn Today

Perry World House turns 5 | Penn Today
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The Politics and Science of Prevision: Governing and Probing the Future

By Andreas Wenger, Ursula Jasper, Myriam Dunn Cavelty Part II | Academic perspectives on future-oriented policy-making Chapter 2: Imagined worlds: The politics of future-making in the twenty-first century By Sheila Jasanoff Chapter 3: How to know the future – and the past (and how not): A pragmatist perspective on foresight and hindsight 1 By Gunther Hellmann By Michael C. Horowitz By Francis J. Gavin Uncertainties, scenarios, and their (un-)intended side effects By Myriam Dunn Cavelty Chapter 7: Uncertainty and precariousness at the policy–science interface: Three cases of climate-driven adaptation By Maria Carmen Lemos, Nicole Klenk Chapter 8: The anticipative medicalization of life: Governing future risk and uncertainty in (global) health 1

How the U S Government Can Learn to See the Future

How the U.S. Government Can Learn to See the Future Editor’s Note: Intelligence assessments are made under tremendous time pressure with imperfect information, so it is no surprise that they are often wrong. They can be better, but the intelligence community often fails to use the best analytic techniques. Julia Ciocca, Michael C. Horowitz, Lauren Kahn and Christian Ruhl of Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania explain the current deficiencies in assessment techniques and argue that rigorous probabilistic forecasting, keeping score of assessments, and employing the “wisdom of crowds” produces better results.  Daniel Byman In 1973, then-Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger argued that policymaking could be reduced to a process of “making complicated bets about the future,” noting that it would be helpful if he could be supplied with “estimates of the relevant betting odds.”

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