The final panel from this Years National black writers conference. Thank you for coming out this afternoon. We really, really, really are glad to see you here and glad you stayed over these four days. When i founded the center for black literature in 2003, one of the major goals was to host the National Black writer withs conference, and it was a vision of john oliver kilns who was poet and writer in residence at that time, and he would have been 100 years in january. He wanted to support the work of black writers by hosting programs and holding a conference every year. And we did this through the center for black literature where we have literary readings, workshops, symposia and Youth Programs for our students. Its called, our Youth Program is called reenvisioning our lives through literature. Weve continued to do this. And as i think over these last four days, i know John Oliver Killens would be smiling. I thank him for his visioning, and i thank all of you for coming together to ce
And what i know here, if we look at the democratic races, a great deal of their competitive races have occurred when the candidate is leading in National Polls readers for the election. So right now doesnt run. Ted kennedy in 1972 and again in 1970s pics three years before the primaries he was the leading candidate. He didnt run. Gary hart dropped out in 1997. Mario cuomo didnt run in 1992. Hillary clinton didnt run in 2004. And each of those democratic years wound up being more competitive. We see a whole lot less agreement among party insiders. Im not showing it in this paper, but the endorsement data for these elections is a lot less consensus among democrats. They are dividing their support among different candidates, but also importantly much more of the Democratic Party establishment spits out. They dont make an endorsement at all. We see that in the republican side of it in 2008 and 2012. For republicans in those years mitt romney, for example, was the consensus pick of the esta
Next, a discussion about National Political party nominations, scandal, and comebacks, as well as rules changes for the 2016 election. This is part of the state of the parties conference. It runs just under two hours. We have four papers to be presented. We hope you will have great interest in what they present. More than anything else, we hope you will have Great Questions because this group of individuals have not only studied what has been, but are giving us perspective of what is to come. I think youll find their perspectives very interesting. About party a paper power and the causal effects of endorsements. Seth is at the university of denver and eric is at the public posse institute of california. I will shut up and let them talk. Whats were here presenting this on behalf of our other co authors. We are trying to come up with a measurement of the impact of a Party Endorsement in a primary, which is traditionally a tricky thing to measure. Study toing a fun case do this. This is t
Nominations i dont have my line in here but you only have a few that are not competitive. Versus incumbent renominations that rarely are these things competitive. Betweennd difference these indicators, democrats versus republicans. There is a distinct party difference for this timeframe. Campaigns contents are bit more competitive overall. Republican campaigns typically are not as competitive. Intraparty trends. This is perhaps the most fascinating thing as far as looking ahead toward 2016 and beyond. Haveratic nominations become somewhat less competitive over time. This is suggesting democratic a couple of things. One, the Democratic Party is a little more unified. It also could mean perspective candidates are little more strategic about calculating their chances and not running, which is also a possibility. Republican nominations in contrast, basically competitive in the 1970s. Ray nagin reagan comes along and you have a great deal of unity in the party and that maybe fragmenting in
We will discuss this with key members of Congress Later this morning. That is our topic for the first 35 minutes and our phone lines are now open. The numbers are you can also reach out to us online. \ attwitter youc a can find us cspanwj. You can email us at journal cspan. Org. Chuck hagel and Martin Dempsey are expected to brief the press at 1 p. M. Eastern on the details on this budget. A number of articles have leaked out. The pentagon Budget Proposal proposes it will also cut subsidies for military commissaries. And it will eliminate the air a10 attack aircraft. On facebook you can reach out to us on facebook. Com cspan. First call comes from gainesville, virginia. Caller good morning. I have a comment. The u. S. Economy is coming out of a deep recession. Whens 1. 2 trillion president obama took over, it is now town to 200 billion. It is way past due be cut paramilitary to a comfortable level. They will continue to fight and we will be wasting money cutting wasting money doing the