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United Kingdom , James Ferguson , Macrostrategy Partnership ,

When inflation gets weird

Once inflation is embedded in an economy, it gets much harder for central banks to dislodge it ....

Vincent Deluard , James Ferguson , Macrostrategy Partnership , World Bank ,

Bond investors should beware the panic as inflation approaches


With yields at record lows and fear of inflation rising, bondholders have rarely looked this vulnerable
8 Mar 2021
Global bond markets have been in a bull market since the early 1980s. That marked the end of the last major inflationary period seen in developed markets. Most bonds pay a fixed income (“coupon”). So while rising inflation is bad (because it makes any fixed payment less attractive), falling inflation is very appealing (the “real” value of the fixed payment increases as inflation falls). This has been reflected in declining bond yields (and thus rising bond prices) for the past 40 years or so. However, the end of the pandemic might also mark an end to the bull market, as governments pump money into their economies to try to prop up the post-Covid-19 recovery and central banks resolve to ignore inflation in favour of full employment. Last week we looked at what sort of assets thrive in a more inflationary world. But what might happen to bondholders?  ....

James Ferguson , Cullen Roche , Macrostrategy Partnership , Pragmatic Capitalism , Reserve Bank , World War , ஜேம்ஸ் ஃபெர்குசன் , கல்லன் ரோச் , ப்ர்யாக்‌ம்யாடிக் முதலாளித்துவம் , இருப்பு வங்கி , உலகம் போர் ,