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Opinion: The recession may already be here -- we just aren't calling it one

Signs of a weak economy are all around though not yet enough to be billed as 'The Recession' ....

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Underestimating Inflation

Written by Jim WelshMacro Tides Weekly Technical Review 02 April 2021 ....

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Tapering Horizon

Written by Jim WelshMacro Tides Weekly Technical Review 24 May 2021 ....

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Four Tailwinds Set To Fade

Four Tailwinds Set To Fade
Macro Tides Weekly Technical Review 03 May 2021
Four tailwinds developed after the Pandemic effectively shut down the U.S. economy. These tailwinds allowed the stock market to look forward rather than focusing solely on the widespread economic dislocation the Pandemic caused. The Federal Reserve slashed its policy rate to 0%, opened special facilities to provide liquidity to market sectors that were shutting down, and expanded its balance sheet from $4 trillion to $7 trillion. Congress quickly passed the $2 trillion Cares Act in March 2020 and the $484 billion Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act in April.
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Pent-Up Demand: Buy The Rumor, Sell The News?

Traditional Sources of Pent-Up Demand
GDP estimates for 2021 keep climbing with the majority of economists expect a Roaring Twenties type of Boom kicking into gear in the second half of this year. Economists expect the successful vaccination of the majority of Americans to be completed by mid year which will unleash a torrent of pent-up demand. This concept is easy to grasp after a year of being careful, postponing vacations, not being able to enjoy frequent visits with family and friends around the dinner table, or catching a good movie and eating buttered popcorn, and spontaneously dining in at a favorite restaurant. ....

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