For anyone attending the California MBA’s Western Secondary starting this weekend, here’s a challenge too good for any tennis players to pass up. Augie Del Rio, CEO of Gallus Insights, and I will play doubles against anyone Sunday afternoon from 2-4PM across the street from the Waldorf. The loser of 2 out of 3 sets pays $500, the winner gets to decide the charity. First two to email Augie snags the opportunity. (I don’t know Augie’s skill level, but I am old… it’ll be like shooting fish in a barrel.) Speaking of the Western Secondary Market Conference, the California MBA uses the financial resources derived from this to support advocacy efforts in Sacramento. No “lobby rats!” If you’re going, sign up. Support the organization! (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Richey May, a recognized leader in providing specialized advisory, audit, tax, technology and other services to the mor
“I got stuck in a conversation with some wealthy people and one woman asked me how my investments were doing. I replied that both avocadoes should be ripe by tomorrow.” Food prices are an everyday reminder of inflation on the spending side of the equation, but on the flip side, plenty of people don’t know where to put their savings these days. One can pick up additional income on savings in places like the perfectly safe TreasuryDirect account and earn over 4 percent on as little as $100. (I would like to think that money won’t change me, but I won $5 on a scratch-off lottery ticket and used it buy name-brand aluminum foil.) The Fed has been, as usual, in the headlines this week by raising the target Fed Funds rate (what banks charge one another for overnight loans). Chris Whalen penned a piece titled, “FOMC Doubles Down on Market Risk.” One picture is worth a thousand words, and here’s a nice chart of Fed Funds to help keep things in pe
“Thirty years ago, we had Bob Hope, Johnny Cash, and Steve Jobs. Today we have no hope, no cash, and no jobs. We are all praying nothing happens to Kevin Bacon.” “Bringing home the bacon” is something that has become strained for tens of thousands in our biz when they lose their job. I’ve been deluged with Wells Fargo folks wanting to change their email to their home email, and while this has always given me insight (in advance, often) into companies closing, to be FTC compliant I don’t actually add emails: sign up personal emails here under the “subscribe” tab. Also, anyone displaced can post their resumes for free here where employers can view them for a nominal $75 fee for several months. Because, hey, there should still be a couple trillion in mortgages originated this year. Hear me out. Are you in debt? Join the crowd. U.S. households’ debt is now $16.5 trillion. Sensationalist headlines aside, it is up about 7 percent
John Kenneth Galbraith said, “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” How about forecasts of how dramatic this downturn has been for residential lenders and related third parties? What is making the headlines these days are companies that are not reducing their workforce, since on the flipside nearly every lender, large and small, are having layoffs, as well as many vendors from small to large (like ICE’s cutbacks in its mortgage group which had an operating loss for the second quarter of $6 million). Behind the scenes? STRATMOR Partner Jim Cameron notes, “While the industry struggles with downsizing, correspondent investors are seeing a greater incidence of manufacturing defects as loans are delivered to them. The industry is originating ‘harder to do’ loans and lenders are cutting staff which is not a great combination.” (Today’s podcast is available here and this week’s is sponso
The risk-free 2-year Treasury began 2022 yielding .73 and is now at 2.52 percent! Does your company offer 2-1 buydown loans? Do your LOs even know what a 2-1 buydown loan is? (If they don’t, bring them up to speed internally or through a program like XINNIX.) Things are changing. My gauge is very unofficial, but the number of emails saying, “Hey Rob, I am retiring but love your Commentary so can you change my email to…” is picking up. And I received this note from a mortgage vet. “Well, with the rates going up, looks like the mortgage industry is heading for another purge. We’ll start seeing the LOs that only had refi business slowly migrate away. Loss of ops staff still continuing. Like we haven’t heard this song before.” Lending aside, what do we make of these recent headlines? Investors place inflation bet on US farmland. Prices for prime Midwest ground climbed by up to a third in the past year as world food prices hit records.