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Yesterday’s Commentary had a note about Atlantic Bay’s “LinkedIn traffic picking up.” I have been assured by Atlantic Bay’s CEO that the company continues to enjoy its 27 years in business and will remain independent! I apologize for any confusion yesterday’s note caused, and the Commentary continues. The conference in New Orleans also continues, with talk of repurchases, credit & verification costs skyrocketing (you’ll see it on your February 1 CRA invoice), and how servicing income “saved the bacon” of many a lender in 2023. The average elevation of New Orleans is 20 feet. Are you going to want to service, or insure, properties on the East Coast that are not only experiencing rising sea levels but also are sinking by a third of an inch a year? “Affecting more than 2 million people and 800,000 properties on the East Coast.” During a 30-year mortgage that’s “only” ten inches. ( ....
If you’re really happy when a scheduled conference or Zoom call is cancelled, does that mean you’re in the wrong line of work? (Asking for a friend.) The demand for Team or Zoom calls certainly skyrocketed during the pandemic, although as companies have moved back into the office to some extent, the demand for them has dropped. Supply and demand determine mortgage pricing, so there is little use in a lender originating loans if there is no demand by investors or portfolios for those loans. Most jumbo loans are originated in states near the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Many originators in those states are wondering where their jumbo pricing will come from, as not only is Wells Fargo Correspondent gone but now First Republic, the 4th largest jumbo mortgage lender, has just exited the market. On the investor call, Jamie Dimon noted that First Republic’s core business of “making very large cheap mortgages will not happen going forward.” Other banks have a ....
“I got stuck in a conversation with some wealthy people and one woman asked me how my investments were doing. I replied that both avocadoes should be ripe by tomorrow.” Food prices are an everyday reminder of inflation on the spending side of the equation, but on the flip side, plenty of people don’t know where to put their savings these days. One can pick up additional income on savings in places like the perfectly safe TreasuryDirect account and earn over 4 percent on as little as $100. (I would like to think that money won’t change me, but I won $5 on a scratch-off lottery ticket and used it buy name-brand aluminum foil.) The Fed has been, as usual, in the headlines this week by raising the target Fed Funds rate (what banks charge one another for overnight loans). Chris Whalen penned a piece titled, “FOMC Doubles Down on Market Risk.” One picture is worth a thousand words, and here’s a nice chart of Fed Funds to help keep things in pe ....
Tomorrow is Valentine’s Day, traditionally associated with love. But on the opposite side of the spectrum, an Ohio animal shelter is offering to write your ex’s name in a litterbox, and let its adoptable cats “go to town.” Someone there knows good PR. Did you know that some countries never know who won the Super Bowl? As the pre-printed “Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl 2023 Champs” t-shirts are shipped off to places like Guatemala or El Salvador, in this country bond market traders and investors are focused on inflation. The Consumer Price Index report for January is tomorrow and forecast to show a 0.5 percent month-over-month rise with energy prices higher again. The headline year-over-year inflation reading is expected to drop to +6.2 percent from +6.5 percent in December. We probably won’t see inflation back in the 2 percent range unless the labor market softens considerably, and that is not evident. Too much inflation will k ....
“Thirty years ago, we had Bob Hope, Johnny Cash, and Steve Jobs. Today we have no hope, no cash, and no jobs. We are all praying nothing happens to Kevin Bacon.” “Bringing home the bacon” is something that has become strained for tens of thousands in our biz when they lose their job. I’ve been deluged with Wells Fargo folks wanting to change their email to their home email, and while this has always given me insight (in advance, often) into companies closing, to be FTC compliant I don’t actually add emails: sign up personal emails here under the “subscribe” tab. Also, anyone displaced can post their resumes for free here where employers can view them for a nominal $75 fee for several months. Because, hey, there should still be a couple trillion in mortgages originated this year. Hear me out. Are you in debt? Join the crowd. U.S. households’ debt is now $16.5 trillion. Sensationalist headlines aside, it is up about 7 percent ....