southeast of cancun, going to move up through the yucatcn channel and make a run out laura florida. this is the lease advisor, up to 100 miles per hour and there are models that are higher than that. this is the cone. but remember this, most people don t even understand the cone is only made to catch 66% of all land falls. one third of all land falls could be left or right so tampa, you are still in the cone and even further to the south and southeast, ask me about what happened with charlie, we were standing in tampa waiting for landfall and it turned to the right and the storm was well south of where it was forecast. so this is the area under hurricane watches now, just posted, the yellow, tropical storm watches. but what is concerning are the 7 to 11 foot storm surge flood potentials. you slide that storm a little bit further to the east, those flood potentials will be closer