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Recession? correct imparted disagree and in part i agree. let s be clear, whatever thursday s number is. even if it shows some kind of small negative gdp growth. i think the overwhelming weight of the evidence is that we are not in a recession now. the negative gdp is in a sense misleading. people spent a lot of money so inventories got drawn down. that is a sign of strength. not a sign of weakness. whatever the gdp numbers show. i do think that over the medium term the great likelihood is that we will have a recession. because when we have an economy as overheated as the economy that we have. that has been the almost universal and historical experience. i think the chances of achieving that soft landing with steady labor market ....
Likelihood is that we will have a recession, because when we have an economy as overheated as the economy that we have, that has been the almost universal historical experience. so i think the chances of achieving that soft landing with steady labor market strength, it could happen, but i don t think it s the best bet. and i think increasingly, that s the judgment that has been reflected in markets. to be clear, it s a forward-looking judgment, and the white house was right in saying that whatever the thursday gdp number it doesn t look like we are in a recession right now. so, do you not think that the white house is moving the goalpost of a recession actually is. look, i have overtime is in the thought of as two quarters of a negative gdp growth? ....
Drink with them. it is hard not to get bored with what how they re trying to think how to make the data better. they re great, wonderful people. never heard them about their personal politics but trying to make the data better and that s the important thing. right. when you go through some of this stuff there s an interesting indicator. it s the rise in job levers. people that quit one job and actively seek another n. a really bad economy that doesn t happen. because people are afraid to leave the jobs. we saw 839,000 people leave their jobs for a dimpfferent jo in december. what do you make of that? again, that s a sign that the labor market is better than it has been and still good and the disconnect of the labor market and the economy or and the stock market. i would also underscore all that volatility of the stock market much of the labor market strength right now has been in low wage, entry level jobs, food services, retail sector, health care services. ....
Unemployment benefits. you have to go back to 1973 to see a number as low as we got this morning. economists are cautioning before we all celebrate, that there are reasons to pause. hurricanes harvey, irma, maria all of those storms that skewed the data. power outages prevented some workers from being able to file necessary paperwork. that said for the past 2 1/2 years claims have been below a key metric accepted as a sign of labor market strength. last month s job reports said wages are rising by 2.9% compared to this year this time last year. basically, it seems like the americans who do have jobs are getting raises, which is very different than a few years ago. speaking of jobs, fed chair janet yellen interviewed to keep her own. her term ends in february. earlier today, she met with president trump for about 30 minutes. so it s unclear if she is going ....