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Today’s calendar centers around US payrolls and services ISM. Consensus expects 180k net job growth, a stable unemployment rate (3.8%), wage growth of 0.3% M/M & 4% Y/Y and the ISM ticking back from 53.6 to 53. In light of the recent bond correction, we see asymmetric risks with markets rallying (& dollar softening) on weaker or in-line data.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce today announced that it will require export permits for some graphite products that are used in batteries for electric vehicles.
US Treasuries underperform following in the release of strong(er than expected) September US retail sales. The topline number rose by 0.7% M/M with the August reading being upwardly revised from 0.6% to 0.8%. The retail sales control group – proxy for consumption in GDP calculations and excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations– surged by 0.6% M/M (vs 0.1% expected) and the August figure up at 0.2% from 0.1%.