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Ukraine: Can We Shorten a Path to Peace in 2023?

How will Ukraine’s war evolve in 2023, and can it yield a path to peace? Analysts’ scenarios for the war are full of unknowns. Yet one certainty is that Ukrainian soldiers and civilians will continue to fight Russia’s assault with every weapon at hand or with none. Building a sustainable, rather than illusory, path to peace must take account of the Ukrainians’ determination. And laying such a path will benefit from noting that the immediate option for peace rests in the hands of Vladimir Putin, who on any given day could end this war by withdrawing his forces. ....

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A Fragile Ukraine Grain Deal Raises Cautions on Talks with Putin

This week’s first exports of Ukrainian grain under a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey are a joyous headline for Ukraine and the many countries where the global surge in grain prices has caused food shortages. The deal could reduce prices if shipments accelerate, but it is vulnerable, as Russia signaled days ago by slamming missiles into Ukraine’s biggest seaport hours after formally agreeing to let that port ship its grain stocks. This fragile deal offers cautions for policymakers pondering eventual negotiations with Moscow to help end the Ukraine war and rebuild security in Europe. ....

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Russia's Ukraine War Has Narrowed—But Not its Goals | United States Institute of Peace

Russia’s Ukraine war, launched in February along the 350 miles from Belarus to the Black Sea, has largely narrowed these weeks to a 45-mile-wide assault on cities in the Donbas region. This and other signals may suggest that President Vladimir Putin is limiting his war aims and will settle for consolidation of control over four provinces in southern and eastern Ukraine. Yet this is probably just a short-term change. Putin’s goal is unchanged, and he is prepared to achieve it by degrees. This reality undermines well-meaning suggestions for peace negotiations that are based on beliefs the Kremlin will settle for what it has now. ....

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Juan Diaz-Prinz on Incentivizing Peace Talks in Ukraine

As it stands, both sides see little reason to engage in peace talks. But USIP’s Juan Diaz-Prinz says that shouldn’t stop the international community from trying to incentive an end to the conflict: “We’ve got to try everything, and we’ve got to try every avenue until the right one fits.” ....

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Four Takeaways on the Intersection of Nonviolent Action and Peace Processes

Four Takeaways on the Intersection of Nonviolent Action and Peace Processes
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