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Housing Supply, Career Opportunities, Vendor Services; How the Fed Impacts Rates

It’s Fed decision day today and another 75-basis point rate hike is expected. Mortgage rates have surged to 14-year highs, deterring both buyers and builders, who have begun making the shift to apartments. ArchMI released its quarterly Housing and Mortgage Market Review, which said that rates aren’t expected to return to the sub-3 percent, or sub-4 percent, range any time soon. Existing home sales have declined sharply to sit nearly 30 percent below the January 2021 pandemic peak of 6.65 million and about 10 percent below the 2019 average of 5.24 million. Over the past year, home prices climbed another 13 percent and combined with increases in mortgage rates have caused the cost of homeownership to surge 48 percent year-over-year and 79 percent over two years. Bloomberg reported that “Months of supply has rarely increased as quickly as it has over the past six months. While we have a limited sample size of this kind of volatility, the size of this increase is norma ....

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TPO Products; Homebuyer, Profitability Products; BofA's 0% Down; Mortgage Applications Trend Lower on Rate Volatility

My cat Myrtle has a certain amount of “girth,” as they say. But I tell her that she carries it well as the calories from line-caught halibut have far outweighed her time working out to burn them off. In fact, I’d be hard-pressed to remember her ever pumping iron. Turning to humans, it’s a proven fact that during the pandemic 87 percent of gym members didn’t even know that their gym was closed. Okay, maybe not proven, but it makes sense. Something else that makes sense is the non-QM product channel, there to help LOs help borrowers, but that segment continues to face an uphill battle. What are borrowers supposed to think when even Yahoo comes out with a sensationalist headline like, “U.S. mortgage lenders are starting to go bankrupt: how non-QM loans could be triggering the worst surge of failures since 2008.” Really? Other product development continues. One wonders about reverse discrimination, but if you’re Black or Latino in Dal ....

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Subservicing, Profitability, Servicing Products; Investor's Conventional Conforming Changes

Mortgage rates dropped after mid-June. Momentarily switching gears, given their role in cakes, breakfasts, custards, and breads, if eggs didn’t exist, would a food scientist have to had invented them? I mention this because the benchmark price of eggs in the U.S. was down to $2.16 a dozen two weeks ago, down 37 percent from the record high $3.38 a dozen in mid-July. These lower prices should be reflected at grocery stores with prices dropping by a dollar a dozen or so. The cause for the spike in the price of eggs was an avian flu that ravaged the U.S. population, killing 30 million commercial and wild birds, and the successful recent moves to repopulate the hens. The downward trend in prices is expected to continue. Homeowners and real estate agents don’t mind a return to “normal” inventory in markets and historical price appreciation rates. But this sensationalist headline will grab some readers: “Home prices plunging in ‘pandemic boomtowns&#x ....

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Sales Research Papers; Fulfillment, Non-QM Products; Fed Balancing Act Continues

In Florida there are approximately 3,000 lakes, not enough to make it onto the leader board of states with the most named lakes (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Alaska are up there). (Here’s a bit of trivia: what is the only state without a naturally occurring body of water large enough to have a name?) Nebraska has the most rivers. I mention this, not to make you thirsty for a glass of clean, cold water, but to bring up that Nevada and Arizona may have their water allotment from the Colorado River cut. What might that do to property values? Florida has its share of rivers, despite the lack of elevation change (its highest point is only 345 feet above sea level). Here in Florida they’re not talking about water, but at the Florida Association of Mortgage Professionals attendees are talking comp, and the current STRATMOR blog is titled, “Lenders are Eying Compensation and Ops Trends.” In addition, don’t be too slow to right-size your company in toug ....

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Private MI, Servicing Testing, Broker Pricing, DPA Products; Conforming Conventional Updates

As rumors of correspondent, wholesale, and retail company cutbacks or closings continue to bounce around our biz, how about this non-mortgage tidbit. During his off hours in New York, Ira S. found yet another fun and fascinating website: a map of the U.S. that one can zoom in/out of, and it will list the resident looked up most on Wikipedia (they had to be born, lived in, or somehow connected to the city). Much less fun is the fact that Capital markets staffs have turned their attention, due to recent rate drops, to renegotiations in the primary markets with LOs and AEs. In the secondary markets, of course, Wall Street firms don’t renegotiate hedge positions. In other words, one can’t call up Morgan Stanley or BAML or Multi-Bank Securities and whine, “Uh, remember that MBS we sold you three weeks ago? Well, rates have moved, and we want a better price or else.” In fact, I’ve even heard nervousness from lenders about margin calls from broker-dealers, e ....

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