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The Fed remains firmly 'in a risk management mode' as it continues to make progress on both sides of the dual mandate. Powell struck an optimistic tone on inflation, stating that data seen so far has been 'good enough' and that the Fed simply needs to see more similar evidence on disinflation in order to initiate the cutting cycle. There are two-sided risks to starting either too late or too early, but the cuts are ultimately on the way in any case. ....
The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, traded lower on Wednesday despite better-than-forecast PMI results. U.S. GDP and PCE data will steal the limelight over the next two days. ....
While the past week has been a quiet one on the macro data front, central bankers sent some hawkish signals ahead of the January rate decisions. The Fed's Waller remained confident that sustainable 2% inflation is within 'striking distance', but he also underscored that there is no reason to cut rates as quickly as in the past. Just ahead of the ECB's silent period, Lagarde noted that rates will likely be cut only by summer and Knot cautioned that markets have been 'getting ahead of themselves'. ....