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Do Not Forget 1980, Inflation Is Not Gone

Do Not Forget 1980, Inflation Is Not Gone
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Why Should Small Business Take a Long-Term View on Inflation?

When one hears and reads about inflation, the attention is typically placed on inflation’s impact on the cost for consumer goods. ....

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Inflation in the Aftermath of Wars and Pandemics


Yves here. This article provides an interesting counterargument to the widespread belief that Covid-related stimulus will generate inflation. Aside from the fact that the economy was below capacity before the Covid crisis (supported by the high level of involuntary part-time employment) and therefore its ability to support more demand is likely high than deficit hawks would have you believe, the lack of labor bargaining power will seriously dampen any one-shot spending from producing sustained wage gains. And remember, in an services-dominant economy, labor costs are the single biggest cost category.
And I am very fond of this sort of analysis. Ken Rogoff’s and Carmen Reinhardt’s study of 800 years of financial crises produced the important finding that high levels of international capital flows are strongly correlated with financial blowups. ....

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