remarkably unenthusiastic. they re not terribly dedicated to her. they re picking her because they don t like the other candidates. and that s fine. that s how a lot of people vote. when you re facing wind chill of 35 degrees and snow, minus 35 and snow, probably if you re not very enthusiastic, you might decide to stay warm. and that may push desantis, who does have a better organization and has had a longer-term building of that organization in iowa, that might enable him to pop up and become second rather than haley. yeah. and, you know, trump is repeating this strategy of using divisive, controversial rhetoric. he was saying it earlier today, talking about immigrants bringing diseases into this country and so on. i did want to show you this, larry. i showed it to our viewers. a new cbs poll shows 81% of republican primary voters agree with trump s poisoning the blood
it comes out on the eve of every iowa caucus, and we all look it to see how it goes. i guess it wasn t a huge shocker to see this, trump out in the lead and haley overtaking desantis. what was your reaction? well, i do pay attention to that poll. while you should never rely on a single poll, it has the best record, and it has been very reliable, although, as we know four years ago there was a terrible glitch and we never got to see the results. that was for the democratic fight. but, look, i think it s basically accurate. if you can find anybody who wants to bet you that trump won t win the iowa caucus, take the bet. de definitely take the bet. he s going to win. he s going to win it handily. as to who finishes second, i m torn about that. haley has popped up in the des moines register poll and other polls, and not just in iowa. that suggests she does have some lift. but her supporters are
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be trump s weakest states. if you look at the underlying data for the electorate, particularly new hampshire, because the undeclared voters that don t identify with democrats and republicans can be, what, 40% of the electorate. they can come in and vote, and they strongly support a non-trump candidate. it looks like it s going to be haley. but the republicans in new hampshire strongly support trump. and outside new hampshire, in the large majority of the states, only republican identifiers and registrants are allowed to participant. so, that helps trump enormously. if i can adjust one historical example dating myself again, jim, back in 1984 this was on the democratic side. you were a member, democratic vice president, walter mondale. he was the leading candidate, got 50% 50% in iowa. the second place candidate there were seven others running was gary hart.
haley org governor desantis, if you lose in iowa or lose in new hampshire, i wouldn t drop out of that race any time soon because there s bombs about to go off in the trump campaign related to the legal proceedings. you think some of these campaigns may need to have some sort of, you know, go bag, i suppose, so to speak. they need to have a campaign in waiting. is that what you re thinking? i think so. i think so. you ve got to have the apparatus in place if he goes down. listen, i have said to people, i think he s the al capone of american politics or the teflon don. both of these people were in the bull s eye of the american justice system. everybody said they were untouchable. they turned out not to be untouchable. the president s campaign and some of his supporters believe that he s not going to be touched. that s possible. but it may not be because the evidence is overwhelming.