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Since the very beginning of the computer revolution, researchers have dreamed of creating computers that would rival the human brain. Our brains are information machines that use inputs to generate outputs, and so are computers. How hard could it be to build computers that work as well as our brains? In 1954 a Georgetown-IBM team predicted that language translation programs would be perfected in three to five years. In 1965 Herbert Simon said that “machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do.” In 1970 Marvin Minsky told Life magazine, “In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being.” Billions of dollars have been poured into efforts to build computers with artificial intelligence that equals or surpasses human intelligence. Researchers didn’t know it at first, but this was a moonshot a wildly ambitious effort that had little chance of a quick payoff.

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