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Who's up and who's down in the Oscar race? EW's awards experts debate


THE TREND LINES
DAVID CANFIELD:Awards season suddenly kicked into gear this week, with the National Board of Review,AFI Awards, and Independent Spirit Awards all announcing their picks. Next week, the race will narrow considerably with Golden Globe and SAG noms. Finally! This week s precursors matter less overall, to be sure, but in a wild season like this they still leave a dent.
JOEY NOLFI: I actually think these precursors have far more weight this year than they would in a normal year. When I interviewed the new Academy members last summer, most of them seemed to be unsure of how many offerings their industry would serve up in such a chaotic year, and I get the sense that a lot of them are going to be looking to any and all precursors as cheat sheets for what they should be paying attention to at a time when rollout of awards season films is so hectic and unorthodox compared to recent years. So, visibility is key now more than ever. ....

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