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we begin in china where hospitals are reported to be filling up with covid patients. infections have surged following the relaxation of the country s strict lockdown rules and as we head in to a new year many are asking what could the surge in infections mean for the economy and the rest of the world? the latest data shows factory activity shrinking for a third month in a row in december. this comes as countries around the world announce covid screening for travellers coming from china as it prepares to reopen its borders on january the 8th. to talk us through what s at stake i m joined by duncan wrigley chief china economist at pantheon macroeconomics. good morning to you. do we know what the real picture is in time in china in terms of the number of infections and those in hospital and those critically ill?- in hospital and those critically ill? in hospital and those criticall ill? ~ ., ~ ., critically ill? we don t know the exact critically ill? we don t know the exa ....
Said, what are economists i said, what are economists saying about what the outlook is for china this year. it s very difficult to tell, i would imagine, the first quarter is going to be very disruptive and just how long that will last for. , , ., just how long that will last for. ~ , , ., ., ., for. right. as you mentioned at the to for. right. as you mentioned at the tap of the top of the programme, the gauge of manufacturing activity is very low, it s worse than quarter number two last year but not as bad as the initial outbreak in early 2020. our judgement is we will get this set of exit waves, will get through the most of the country by the first quarter which means at least a substantial part of the country will be reopening in q2. part of the country will be reopening in 02. that is how fast this wave is sweeping through the country. and therefore for china as a whole, we expect the worst economically to a past by 01 ....