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Despite more than 860 million vaccinations delivered in over 200 countries, the world total has passed 140 million cases and three million deaths. Driven by new variants, a 4th Mega-Wave of Covid-19 that is now sweeping the globe threatens to be the largest since the virus left Wuhan.
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The Third Wave
Between September last year to mid-January this year, a large third wave struck the United States, Britain, Europe, and Latin America. Growing at a staggering 20 million new cases per month, the third wave peaked at over 845,000 cases per day in early January. The 3rd Wave abated for about a month, as countries introduced stronger lockdowns and stricter travel rules, and began mass vaccination programmes. Daily cases halved to 370,000.
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As we embark on the largest mass vaccination in our history, there is a 34.4% chance each week and an 85.7% chance each month of a community outbreak unless we reduce the number of arrivals into New Zealand. A reduction should focus on the 36.4% of arrivals who are non-New Zealand citizens and/or the 40.9% who are non-permanent or not intended long-term residents. After worldwide reports of fraud, we also need to revaluate the pre-departure negative test regime required to cross our border.
Vaccines vs Variants
Over the next nine months, New Zealand will walk a tight rope between the salvation of anti-Covid serums, control of Covid-19 at our borders and in Managed Isolation and Quarantine (MIQ), and the threat presented by hyper-infectious variants now sweeping the globe.
Dr Rawiri Taonui Covid Maori | Up to 85 7 percent chance of further OutBreaks waateanews.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from waateanews.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.