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The financial press seems enthralled with the business cycle. Expansion, contraction, rates and stocks up, rates and stocks down. Right now they’re all stumbling over themselves looking for signs of a recession. Recessions, of course, tend to lower rates since the demand for credit drops. European growth projections are poor. No one really knows what is going on in China. In the United States, the Federal Reserve has pushed the Fed Funds rate (the interest rate at which banks and credit unions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight) from near 0 percent to what could be 4.75 percent by year end. There are some signs of softening in the U.S. job market (like job openings declining), but household debt service levels have dropped and savings levels are doing okay. The team at the Mortgage Bankers Association is forecasting appreciation levels near 0 percent for 2023 and 2024. There’s your snapshot! (Today’s podcast is available here. This wee ....