United states and weak business in fixed investment. I sit at the time we should do modest limited adjustment to the fed funds rate. The other thing i was worried about is the curve was inverted and i felt it would be much better if we had an upwardly sloping curve. To me, the curve is a symptom that maybe our adjustments were about right it was not intended to solve these issues but intended to adjust policy in light of these issues. I think the curve being upwardly sloping tells me we are in the right place. Want to move on to the consumer because the fed is putting so much impact on the consumer. Beenl sales have decelerating. A november number was half of what the Consensus Forecast was. Our Bloomberg Economics team expected holiday sales to come in at a gain of 3. 4 , the second weakest of the cycle. What if your main engine of growth is starting to run out of gas . That weakbeen worried Business Investment and weak manufacturing would seep into other parts of the economy. We have
Typically on the day after thanksgiving. A little bit of a selloff in the treasury market. Yields a little bit richer across the curve. Weve been seeing this all week, even as equities did rally on monday, tuesday, and wednesday come over to those record highs. The dollar has been heading for its ninth straight day of gains. The dollar still setting up for its best month since july. And we want to take a look at crude. This is a pretty interesting reversal. He came in premuch flat on the day on wti, now down almost 4 . A lot of concerns about opec and their commitment to production cuts. Market not quite buying it. You can see that selling off a little bit as we head into the middle of the day. Lets talk about what is happening in london. We are expecting an update from the metropolitan police within the next few minutes. When that happens, we will bring you the headlines from it. A number of people have been stabbed on London Bridge. We will bring you the detail. In terms of the marke
Vix at 16. Jpmorgans point this morning was typically, you have the s p down two plus maybe a dozen times since covid. Couple of those were in the depths of covid but generally, its when the vix was about 20 unless we get a shock, maybe the selling is going to end soon if youre looking for why today, theres a slew of reasons. Started overnight in china with weaker Economic Data across the board even though we got a rate cut there, which should be supportive top data in the u. K. And in the u. S. , the data was mixed retail sales, a lot stronger but markets quit trying to figure out whether good news is good or bad news is bad because it keeps the feds hiking rates higher for longer that 1 control group number that feeds into gdp, thats something people were talking about for a monthly gain that was double the expectation and signals the consumer is still in good shape even though we got new York Manufacturing going back into negative territory and showing a lot of pain there you see go
Shery youre watching daybreak a show live from new york, sydney and hong kong. Haidi the top stories, asian stocks are lower as volatility ratchets up. The dollar is extending gains. Tesla in the crosshairs as a beneficiary of subsidies. The ftc is accusing the ecommerce giant of monopolizing services in challenging sellers. Shery take a look at futures. Muted moves after the s p 500 fell to the lowest level since early june. We are on track for the worse month this year. The fear gauge is climbing above its average to the highest level since may. Investors are digesting data with Consumer Confidence following read treasury yields drifting. The 10 year yield at 453 levels, decade highs. Weve been watching the upcoming preferred gauge of inflation, that will be one to watch in terms of the fed and a potential shutdown leading to safe haven demand in the dollar index at the highest level this year. Seeing its longest winning streak since august. We continue to watch oil prices as well. H
U. S. Dealerships 1. 2 billion. Caroline we are keeping a close eye on volkswagen as we see the dax open. Futures lackluster ahead of jackson hole. Check out my futures board on the bloomberg. See the cac 40 underperform, down by a quarter percent. On to the assets. Manus we will get into those assets. If you want to understand the limitations or the questions that are raised by the efficacy of stocks on behalf of your losstry, close to 3. 9 from april to june. This is the Japanese Pension Fund. What we have seen is the bank of japan involved in these markets. They will have taken an equitable loss. Japan gpi have posted 3. 9 loss between april and june as a stocks slump. The efficacy of negative rates on the bank of japan we will debate. Lets check in on your markets. It is filler kill day for risk and volatility. It is jackson hole day. You have the emerging market index there. We are seeing this stock. Overall we have lost 1 . We are stalling on the rally. Jpmorgan volatility, fx vo