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here. let s come back here to where we are right now. as you watch the map fill in, again, filling the way roy moore want it is here and filling in the way doug jones want it is here. the way roy moore want it is here. the biggest question for doug jones, i m going to take this away so it s not confusing. the biggest question is when jefferson county comes in, birmingham needs to run it up. not just win, but run it up. that needs to be a route for doug jones. we ll look here add at madison county. if it s red, roy moore wins, if it s blue at the end of the night, doug jones is in play. birmingham is about 13% of the population right there. this is a giant piece. number one, in urban birmingham, central birmingham, that is your democratic base, bakari was talking about this earlier tonight. it is key that doug jones not only win the african-american vote, the democratic base, but, again, not just the percentages, the math. you need to see the democratic intensity here. blue state, l
trump more republicans staying home? give us 10678 researches. a little comparison to birmingham. let s go back to birmingham, that county almost 13, almost 14% of the electorate in alabama. how did hillary clinton, for example, do in the last presidential contest there. election here obviously.tial - you see the same dynamic. this is what s called the black belt and it s called that for the top soil, deep, black, rich agricultural top soil. it is also a democratic area and where you have a significant african-american population. the base, any stepping stone for any democrat to be competitive has to be here. 14% of the population. birmingham, the suburbs. hillary clinton, 52%. that s a good margin, but it s not good enough. if you go back, you see this throughout. let s go back to the 2012 presidential election. obama 53% here. that is because don t think of it just as birmingham central city, it s because of the suburbs. the democrats win in the city and the suburbs around is where
elsewhere in the state, specially when they sweep these smaller rural counties. this will be the first place we watch tonight. doug jones essentially has to outperform barack obama and hillary clinton to put this into play. the combination of young voters, african-american voters and then reaching into the suburbs. so in jefferson county, which includes birmingham, he s going to have to do a lot better than 52% in order to carry the rest of the state, right? yes. and because there are so many more republicans than democrats in modern day alabama, it s not just doing better than the 50%, it s we re going to look a lot more at the hard numbers tonight. the math. to see if the key to this is for the democrats to over turnout, overperform. you d have to find examples for doug jones. that gets him into play. to see if he can win, you have to see if there is evidence in the more rural areas of the state that some republicans are staying home or these write-in numbers grow. 1% of the
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