Prerecession level of Household Wealth respondent righthand side there, you see the retail fails and personal number are hanging in there and that aught to support a halfway decedent growth in Consumer Spending and that is what this is showing here may be two growth in securelier spendings and so you get some help from construction sector and Consumer Spend something and what about businesses what role do they play in this, gdp growth in the future to the expend it has and this is a look at cash on hand and the point point is that businesses are swim swimming in cash but not spending it. And this is a look at business spendings and what you find is that in the early part of this recovery when consumers were you know, hiding under their beds and you know worried about the recession it was businesses that were really spending rather aggressively they had just laid off 8 Million People and looking for ways to become more productive through the implementation of the better use of it can te
401 ks have come back and so in 2013, we are probably back to prerecession level of Household Wealth respondent righthand side there, you see the retail fails and personal number are hanging in there and that aught to support a halfway decedent growth in Consumer Spending and that is what this is showing here may be two growth in securelier spendings and so you get some help from construction sector and Consumer Spend something and what about businesses what role do they play in this, gdp growth in the future to the expend it has and this is a look at cash on hand and the point point is that businesses are swim swimming in cash but not spending it. And this is a look at business spendings and what you find is that in the early part of this recovery when consumers were you know, hiding under their beds and you know worried about the recession it was businesses that were really spending rather aggressively they had just laid off 8 Million People and looking for ways to become more produc
Various drivers of that and the first case is that residential construct construction is going to help and that is what got us into this mess so it may seem counterintuitive this is the most macro measure i can use to show the residential activity across the country and obviously this fell off the cliff during the recession and has not meaning fully retraced ground during that time period what might be useful is to think about if this is the demand for new homes what is the real im sorry the supply of new homes what is the demand for it how many new homes do we really need and nor to get a sense for that i look at this data series from the United States Census Bureau and this is house of information and if you are young couple getting a first house or an individual whos you know, living in school and getling their first detriment ask a forms the horizontal line going through there is the average from 1961 to 2,000 and leaves out the last deck a i did ask so it says how many newer homes
Out the last deck a i did ask so it says how many newer homes do we really need here and its one and a quarter million and so may be between one and a quart million and one andahalf million is where we aught to be and so now im going to backup and go to the previous slide and if this was penciled in here it would be a horizontal line through this graph and we would find that we were building way too much at the height of the bubble and so where are we going from here we are going back to one and a quarter or one andahalf million or so overt course of next five years and considering we have been at 600,000 or so, if we go to one. 2 million that is a double in the pace of reconstruction activity the and twice as many framers roofers and home inspector and is then that has a booying fantastic on the overall economy having said that im not living with my head in the sand here i recognize that a lot of markets are still suffering a little bit and this graph show yous you the change of value
And if this was penciled in here it would be a horizontal line through this graph and we would find that we were building way too much at the height of the bubble and so where are we going from here we are going back to one and a quarter or one andahalf million or so overt course of next five years and considering we have been at 600,000 or so, if we go to one. 2 million that is a double in the pace of reconstruction activity the and twice as many framers roofers and home inspector and is then that has a booying fantastic on the overall economy having said that im not living with my head in the sand here i recognize that a lot of markets are still suffering a little bit and this graph show yous you the change of value in home price from their local market peak to where they are at present the case sowler composite and San Francisco is halfway through the pack there down to about 33 and so whole values are still off from where they were before but if you look at where we are from the lo