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National MI turned heads yesterday by announcing its temporary increase to AUS conforming loan amounts, despite the official FHFA word not coming until the end of November. (More below on the amounts.) Our biz is filled with “numbers people,” good or bad. According to Curinos, September 2023 funded mortgage volume decreased 30 percent YoY and 14 percent MoM. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in September was 7.01 percent, 18bps higher than August and 146bps higher than the same month last year. (Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures.) Inventory and sales aren’t helping. Economist Dr. Elliot Eisenberg summed things up. “August data showed MoM housing starts down 11.3 percent to their lowest level since 6/20, the NAHB housing index down sharply M-o-M for the second month in a row, and new home sales weakening 8.7 percent MoM, the biggest decline since 9/22. Existing housing ....
“I’m not a fan of elevator music. It’s bad on so many levels.” Whether or not you think that the environment and value of owning stock in lenders and vendors has been “bad” over the last year or two, it certainly has been dicey. If you want to “be long” lenders or other mortgage-related companies, you could put some of your hard-earned savings into RKT, ICE, GHLD, UWMC, HMPT, LDI, PMT, FOA, or COOP. Now you’ll have a new vehicle: BETR. Yes, Better.com is going public, in what many would term a “challenging” environment. In a combination of stock market news, along with the reminder that making predictions about markets is like throwing darts, an ETF that was started on March 1, 2023 to track Jim Cramer’s stock picks has only garnered $1.3 million in assets and is closing. Maybe this is the free market saying that Jim Cramer is full of fluff and no value. (Today’s podcast can be found here and thi ....
What would this opening paragraph be without some fun, non-mortgage stuff? Watch a rare livestream of bald eagles nesting on eggs in California. 32 trillion gallons of water have fallen in California in recent weeks, resulting in a disaster declaration. Speaking of that state, the weather forecast for San Diego is warm and sunny next week as hundreds of mortgage professionals are preparing to go to California for the MBA’s Independent Mortgage Banker’s Conference. (Say “hi” if you see me.) One topic of conversation, of course, will be the bond market and mortgage pricing. Months ago, I’d receive question after question about pricing. “Why is no one paying anything above par (100)? I’d explain that no investor wanted to pay 103 and lose 3 points in a matter of months if rates dropped a little, and that 7 ½ percent 30-year loan refinanced at 100. Well, here we are. Helping lenders was a reduction in securitization costs, but takin ....
In the press, here’s some information on the hit the Fed’s balance sheet has taken give the bond market selloff. And here at the MBA’s annual, some of the talk is about new products and about cost cutting. Yes, lenders are looking for new products, or help in exploring the viability of rolling something new out. For example, at the Capital Markets Committee meeting Sunday, I spent some time with Susan Brown, CMB, Founder & CEO of CoreSGB which helps lenders roll out construction loan products. In terms of cost cutting, I’ve spoken to a few owners who challenged their department heads to cut their costs 15 percent instead of the usual 10 percent, and brainstorm with others in doing it. We all know that net basis point goals (like aiming for 75 to 105 bps) have pretty much gone away. But if you’re “only” hitting breakeven, then unintended events can bring you to large losses quickly. If a company is seeing operational excessive ....
“The officer said, ‘You drinking?’ I said, ‘You buying?’ We just laughed and laughed.. It’s Friday morning and I need bail money.” No one ever struck it rich by keeping their money in a savings account, although American Express National Bank is offering a yield of 1.5 percent on deposits. Do you work for a residential lender making money? If so, good for you! The Mortgage Bankers Association tells us, in its Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report, that only 57% of lenders were profitable in the second quarter of 2022, and/but on average independent mortgage banking (IMB) firms and mortgage subsidiaries of federally insured depositories lost $82 on each loan they originated (versus a gain of $223 per loan in 1Q22). Lenders who held onto servicing enjoyed a profit of $133 per loan, down from $242 per loan in the first quarter. We’re more than halfway through the 3rd quarter, and I am not hearing good things about July income ....