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Monsoon onset dates were revised in 2020 based on 60 years of data from 1960 to 2019. The onset date for Port Blair (Andaman Nicobar) is 22nd May, Sri Lanka 26th May and the mainland (Kerala) 01st June. Pre Monsoon cyclones of May in the Indian seas have unique characteristics and differ from basin to basin. ....
For any cyclone to reach Odisha, West Bengal or Bangladesh, the initial perturbation has to cross the latitude of 15 Degree North. If it does not happen due to strong easterly winds over southern latitudes in the higher levels, the weather system will head for South Coastal Andhra Pradesh or North Tamil Nadu (low probability) and may not strengthen much. ....
A broad cyclonic circulation is likely to form over Southeast BoB and South Andaman Sea on 05th May. This feature will get organised and is expected to percolate to the ocean surface as a low-pressure area around 06-07 May. ....
He low latitude and distant location of MJO do not augur well for accentuation. Therefore, this area will be kept under observation till mid-week for more clarity. The next storm in the Indian Seas, as and when it forms, will be named ' Mocha' to be pronounced as ' Mokha'. ....
Weather systems very close to the equator do not intensify much. However, favourable sea conditions, at times, give a push and take these disturbances to the stage of depression and deep depression. Additional trigger is required to upgrade to a storm. ....