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Good morning. Im mark moore, director for the center of military and diplomatic history here csis. We are delighted to host sir Lawrence Freedman this morning. I see some familiar faces as host of new ones which is great. As most of you in this got i think understand well, the idea of forcing the future in principle holds great appeal, so much of what we do in washington in terms of allocating resources, developing capabilities and dividing strategies is based upon our expectations of the military environment of the future. The trouble of course is that prediction is difficult. Some would even say impossible. Of course in reading this trip the book i was reminded of a saint by a chinese philosopher that those of knowledge did not predict, and those who predict did not have knowledge. Philip tadlock, the author of the bestselling book super forecasting contested active prediction is not impossible, at least in the shortterm, but he also emphasized that humans are extremely gullible when

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