Australian Dollar is having a robust, broad-based rally today, boosted by unexpectedly strong CPI data. This inflation report is particularly notable given the unexpected reacceleration in monthly CPI in March, which contributed to the quarterly figure not slowing as much as anticipated. Meanwhile, both services and domestic inflation remain elevated. The set of data is unlikely to alter RBA's "not ruling anything in or out" stance at the upcoming meeting in May. The timing of the first rate cut is now pushed further to the end of the year, and there is even possibility that the next move is a rate hike.
Dollar is making a modest recovery in early US session, supported by slightly better-than-expected durable goods orders and recovery in benchmark Treasury yields. However, the overarching direction of the greenback for the near term remains uncertain, largely dependent on shifting risk sentiments. Current stock futures are showing mixed opening, leaving investors watching closely to see how these dynamics unfold throughout the trading day.
Euro is making broad gains in Asian session, fueled by hawkish comments from a top ECB official who suggested that the next rate hike could be a 50bps one. Euro's strength is also lifting the Swiss Franc, while Sterling remains firm but lags slightly behind. In contrast, Australian and Canadian dollars are underperforming, with the Aussie looking particularly vulnerable ahead of tomorrow's CPI report and facing additional pressure from selling in cross against New Zealand Dollar.
Selloff in Australian and to a lesser extent Canadian Dollar is the main theme in the markets today, but market directions are not clear elsewhere. Euro's rally attempt against Dollar and Yen faltered following deep retreat in European benchmark yields. But the common currency is making progress in upside breakout against Sterling. Meanwhile, Yen and Swiss Franc are gaining ground as US and European yields fall. Dollar's performance is mixed for now, and further guidance from overall risk sentiment may be needed. However, the greenback could face deeper declines against Yen if treasury yield weakness persists.