The junta s seizure of this key northern city from the Azawad coalition could create more problems than it solves, The victory of Forces armées maliennes (FAMa) and its Russian Wagner Group allies over the Coordination des mouvements de l Azawad (CMA) for control of Kidal on 14 November is a useful political boost for the Bamako junta but not the military turning point that it claims. Most of the CMA s fighters have simply pulled back from Kidal to adjacent areas from where they will continue their insurgency against the junta and its army.
The Sahelian juntas have signed a military alliance as jihadist and separatist groups step up their attacks, As Mali s military regime pursues its drive to reassert central government authority over the Kidal region hitherto dominated by Tuareg former separatists, conflict has spread across the north, with jihadists seizing the opportunity to step up their own attacks west of Timbuktu (AC Vol 64 No 18, As Bamako pushes out the UN, Islamists seize new opportunities).
The junta and its Wagner Group allies are reopening battles with the former separatist as they race to take over the UN s bases, After a decade of the UN s 15,000-strong peacekeeping force operating in northern Mali, the region is adapting to its sudden departure. Two threats stand out: the insurgent Islamist groups heading southwards are capturing more territory in the Ménaka and Gao regions; and Mali s national army, backed by fighters from Russia s Wagner Group, are fighting former separatist groups for control of the UN s recently vacated bases in the region.
The mercenary Wagner group will be the main beneficiary as international peacekeepers prepare to quit and jihadists step up attacks, Malian junta leader Col Assimi Goïta pronounced himself very satisfied on his Twitter account following a lengthy phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on 14 June. The two men discussed Russian deliveries of wheat, fertiliser and fuel, while Goïta also thanked Putin for the latter s assistance in fighting terrorism and stabilising the situation in Mali.
The five ruling colonels are digging in for a long stay – but neither Wagner s mercenaries nor the army are stemming the jihadist tide, The military junta is making itself comfortable. That much was clear on 21 February when the National Transitional Council (NTC), a hastily convened rubber-stamp parliament of 120 placemen of the colonels in Bamako, unanimously voted to hold elections in five years time.