The junta s seizure of this key northern city from the Azawad coalition could create more problems than it solves, The victory of Forces armées maliennes (FAMa) and its Russian Wagner Group allies over the Coordination des mouvements de l Azawad (CMA) for control of Kidal on 14 November is a useful political boost for the Bamako junta but not the military turning point that it claims. Most of the CMA s fighters have simply pulled back from Kidal to adjacent areas from where they will continue their insurgency against the junta and its army.
The junta and its Wagner Group allies are reopening battles with the former separatist as they race to take over the UN s bases, After a decade of the UN s 15,000-strong peacekeeping force operating in northern Mali, the region is adapting to its sudden departure. Two threats stand out: the insurgent Islamist groups heading southwards are capturing more territory in the Ménaka and Gao regions; and Mali s national army, backed by fighters from Russia s Wagner Group, are fighting former separatist groups for control of the UN s recently vacated bases in the region.
The five ruling colonels are digging in for a long stay – but neither Wagner s mercenaries nor the army are stemming the jihadist tide, The military junta is making itself comfortable. That much was clear on 21 February when the National Transitional Council (NTC), a hastily convened rubber-stamp parliament of 120 placemen of the colonels in Bamako, unanimously voted to hold elections in five years time.