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Politicians are compromising central banks’ commitments to price stability targets, and the ensuing sticky inflation will require a much tougher cost of capital to extinguish. ....
Rising mortgage rates will help cool housing market Normalising bank funding costs should drive fixed loan rates higher, which will help cool ebullient Australian property at just the right time for regulators. Share Over the years, this column has been the staunchest possible defender of Australia’s prized AAA sovereign credit rating, regularly excoriating Standard & Poor’s for putting it on “negative outlook” ahead of a possible downgrade, only to belatedly normalise the rating years later to “stable” as the “wonder Down Under” repeatedly bested its global peers. A modest increase in bank funding costs after the RBA’s term funding facility expires in June could be the perfect tonic to help cool the heated housing market. ....
How to prepare for war with China While the wider community is mostly oblivious to the risk of war, there is a very real chance that the Australian homeland could be in the cross-hairs. Share Long-time readers of this column have been hearing about the drum beats of war between China and the US for the best part of a decade. Back in May 2020, Coolabah Capital gave a detailed private seminar to hundreds of our wholesale clients assessing these risks and advised that the probability of major power conflict in the Indo-Pacific had lifted to as high as 50 per cent. ....
Winners and losers of an annus horribilis The greatest legacy of COVID-19 may be that it has united a divided liberal-democratic order in recognition of the threat of an autocratic superpower. Share As difficult as 2020’s annus horribilis has been – a year in which we’ve all lost out, one way or another – the winners have been human ingenuity, those who can predict policy endogeneity and, perhaps ultimately, democratic capitalism as a business model relative to the ascendant alternative of autocracy, which is being forced into autarky. When SARS-CoV-2 first emerged, almost all the experts were convinced there was no hope of finding vaccines that could be approved and distributed in 2020. ....