A surprise rate hike by Indonesia’s central bank underlines expectations that the start of monetary policy easing is looking increasingly far off for many Asian central banks, if it is on the horizon at all.
A higher-than-expected consumer price inflation (CPI) print for March in the US has dashed hopes of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) in June.
Analysts now expect the US central bank to start cutting rates in September, provided inflation remains in check and oil prices remain supportive.
The markets, analysts believe, partially factored in this possibility.
Morgan Stanley has recently revised India’s FY25 GDP growth forecast to 6.8% from 6.5%, citing robust domestic demand, reflected in a 10-year high in bank loan growth. With inflation on a downward trend, real rates in the region are on the rise. However, delays in US Fed rate cuts or supply-related concerns pushing oil prices to USD 110-120 per barrel could pose risks if rate cuts are postponed until the first quarter of 2025 or later, according to Morgan Stanley - Newsx
Central banks likely to cut rates from June-July, align with pre-Covid range: Morgan Stanley aninews.in - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from aninews.in Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
Explained: The disconnect between India's growth story and its reality thenationalnews.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from thenationalnews.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.