the ons show northern ireland is the only part of the uk where the economy has recovered nearly two pre pandemic levels. that isn t surprising given that northern ireland has, in effect, remained in the eu s single market for goods due to the northern irish protocol. while all other parts of the uk have seen a negative impact as a result of brexit, the scale of that is three times higher in scotland than in london. we said that brexit would be bad for scotland, that it would have a differential impact on our economy, and as is clear, it is what is having a direct impact on our budget. be under no illusion, the budget. be under no illusion, the budget i am presenting today is smaller than it would have been if it wasn t for the impact of brexit on our economy. they brexit which has been imposed on scotland against the express wish of the people who live here. applause
milder air associated with this in the south. notice there s not much of this in northern areas. this band of this in northern areas. this band of rain will be hedging through western areas through day. snow in scotland for a time. this will turn back to rain. this mild wodge of air will be wafting into southern wales and south west england, boosting temperatures to around 11 celsius for some later on today. for most of this, it will be around five to seven celsius. overnight, outbreaks of rain pushed eastwards, slowly pushing away from the eastern coast of east anglia and kent. frost patches develop. friday, we ve got these north westerly winds that will be streaming in, bringing a day of sunshine and showers. there will be some sparkling sunshine to look forward to. those showers have been is deeply widespread across the uk. some of them may fall as sleet.
now update parliament on the economic and fiscal context and take a moment first to thank the scottish fiscal commission for the forecast which informs the budget. supply chain bottlenecks, labour market shortages, inflation pressures and rising energy prices are all facing extra pressure on businesses and households trying to recover from the impact of the pandemic. the fiscal commission forecasts a level of long term economic damage to the scottish economy from covid 19 of around 2%. similarto the scottish economy from covid 19 of around 2%. similar to the obr s forecast for the uk economy. this means the long term impact of brexit on the economy will be worse than that caused by covid 19 with the obr attributing a 4% long term reduction in living standards due to the uk s exit from the eu. the impact of brexit hasn t been felt equally across the uk. latest figures from
action. thank you for speaking to us on bbc news. we action. thank you for speaking to us on bbc news. we can action. thank you for speaking to us on bbc news. we can cross - action. thank you for speaking to us on bbc news. we can cross to i action. thank you for speaking to us on bbc news. we can cross to the l on bbc news. we can cross to the scottish parliament now where the finance secretary is about to start delivering the annual budget. the budget will help tackle the climate emergency, support economic recovery, and reduce inequalities. it comes at a crucial moment for scotland. it s the first budget of this parliamentary term, and it is also the first budget of this partnership government developed in cooperation with the scottish green party. it delivers on key commitments made such as free travel on buses for young people as well as doubling the child benefit payment. as part of that, this budget redoubled our efforts to meet our emission reduction target in a fair and j
brexit and uk government policy on immigration continues to affect income tax receipts in scotland. based on the left test forecasts, scottish income tax receipts are estimated to be £190 million lower than the grant adjustment next year. there are a number of factors to explain that. both state. the performance of outcome taxed will only be known once outcome data is published in 2024. strong earnings growth in london and south east, particularly among the highest earners means budget is reduced even while earnings grow in scotland. that issue is accounted for in the welsh fiscal framework, but not ours. we have clear that it must form part of the upcoming fiscal framework review. rising inequality