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Right away. Maybe august was that peak fear. The fear trade peaking. Chomped a lot of wood in august, sentiment horrible. Investor sentiment is incredibly bearish. Maybe we are coming out of it. I think the fed needs to confirm that, but maybe we have had a mini cycle. We are set up perfectly for a rally in risk assets into the fall. If we could just hold earnings here, we get a revaluation story in equities. I think that is the next trade up, and that is the pain trade. If you want the bull market to die, show me a recession. Until you can produce it, you have to take me over. No recession, Central Banks in play, markets outside, going into the fall, trade deal, upside. Jonathan another big week for treasury yields, too. Joining me around the table, kathy jones of charles schwab, Brian Rehling of wells fargo. Kathy, Morgan St ....
Coming up, cpi topping estimates for the third month in a row. Markets and the fed rethink geopolitical tensions complicate the direction for treasuries. We start with the feds inflation problem. The sound was the door slamming on the june rate cuts. Inflation. There is more inflation that people would like. Too much for the fed. It really complicates things for the fed. A very stubborn situation. No one is expecting june. Still holding onto the june call. It is a close call. You will have some rate cuts but it will not be what people expected. A rate cut in june seems to me would be a dangerous and egregious error. Right now, looking forward, we do not see any rate cuts. The fed is not going to be making any moves anytime soon. It really is a fascinating moment. Sonali it seems like just yesterday we were talking about june or july for the first moment for the rate cut you saw by the Federal Reserve but you can see by the chart ....
The reach for yield is apparent in every asset class. We know the insatiable chase for yield continues. We should be watching for excesses or buoyancy to get to a tipping point. It should not surprise that this thirst for yield has gotten into the highyield market stree. Am i being compensated for the risk im taking on . You have to be buying credit somewhere whether its highyield or highquality corporate in an effort to get some spread over that which they can earn in treasuries. As a consequence, you have a sort of natural buyer for it even if they have to hold their nose for it while theyre doing it. There comes a point in most investment cycles where you have to start thinking the return on capital is rather less important than the return of capital. Keeping your money and not losing anything becomes more important. A lot of folks who are big names and got it right the giving of the rally are beginning to say, look, this cant go on forever. Scarlet one of those big names gundlach. ....
Fed's rate cut signals, inflation data fuel modest UST, muni rally bondbuyer.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from bondbuyer.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
Waning Fed rate cut bets boost US Treasury yield forecasts: Reuters poll yahoo.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from yahoo.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.