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Financial crisis, rooted in a lack of system resilience and robustness, is a particular type of critical transition that may cause grievous economic and social losses and should be warned against as early as possible. Regarding the financial system as a time-varying network, researchers have identified early warning signals from the changing dynamics of network motifs. In addition, network motifs have many different morphologies that unveil high-order correlation patterns of a financial system, whose synchronous change represents the dramatic shift in the financial system’s functionality and may indicate a financial crisis; however, it is less studied. This paper proposes motif transition intensity as a novel method that quantifies the synchronous change of network motifs in detail. Applying this method to stock networks, we developed three early warning indicators. Empirically, we conducted a horse race to predict ten global crises during 1991-2020. The results show evidence that th ....
On 17 December 2021, the Second GBA Smart Tourism Forum was successfully held online and offline at the SHTM. The Forum was organised by the SHTM and its Hospitality and Tourism Research Centre together with STR, and was supported by the School of Tourism Management of Sun Yat-sen University and the Macao Institute for Tourism Studies and sponsored by the University Grants Committee, Hong Kong Tourism Board and Pacific Asia Travel Association. ....