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First, even after this twoday, markets not down much at all. The s p 500s only off about 4 , dows off 5. 7 , nasdaq which totally red hot going into this week is down 3. T2 . Barely down at all especially when you consider this high index is up 22 for the year. That perspective matters. Today the high fliers in the nasdaq, the linkedin, teslas finally cracked, my favors celgene, regeneron and gilead. But very few can hold up even if they dont have that economic sensitivity. These highfly selloffs dont end in a day or two. They tend to last three four days before they start bouncing back and usually bounce back with a vengeance. Accept theyve been big winners and big winners do sell off and then your call not mine whether you can handle the disturbance, or if you want to ring the register, i suspect theyll go back when the deal is done. Again, perspective on things. As i like to do every time i get discouraged like today, i take a look at the wall street journal from october 4th of 2011 ....
Perhaps the similarity is why on occasion people call me a clown, even a joker, as long as its not a midnight toker. Maybe theyre complimenting ply keen sense of timing when they compare me to his legends. Anyway, the joke is on them. When it comes to stock, getting the timing correct, knowing the right time to buy or to sell, among the most important yet difficult and frustrating parts of managing your own money, you tell me this. Im solving it tonight. It is demanding. Precision of any sort is tough to get right. Thats why you hear so many commentators say its possible, in fact, theres a whole Cottage Industries of nay sayers, who make a living say theres no way a regular investor can do it, so you might as well give up on picking your own stocks. Just put all your money in an index fund, and leave it there for all eternity. Now, look, ive got nothing against index funds per se. They can be a decent way to make money if you ....
First day might portend a negative year because it hasnt happened in ages. Please. Im saying todays action where the dow ended up gaining 29 points, although it was higher in the afternoon, nasdaq declined. 27 . Shows the whole idea of any one session meaning anything is uninformed. Downright foolish even. Wall street gibberish. Days alone do not set precedents. However, im a big believer that a year matters. A plus 20 or more year like 2013 has almost always been followed by another good year. Thats right, in 14 of the last 17 years when the market was up better than 20 , the next year we had an average gain of 15 . And even if you count the three clunker years, youve got about 11 gain. Thats not too shabby. Still, i respect this is a clearly what have you done for me lately market. And well find out next week when we get the first earnings reports of 2014. And the first nonfarm payroll report next friday. Let me Say Something rig ....
A phenomena that gloriously stopped today. Dow dropping 27 points, s p and the nasdaq both shedding 0. 1 . As we hit a legitimate bottom down about 6 , we have been rallying as if things are terrific and getting much better. You know what . Thats fabulous. Or at least it will be fabulous if it were true. But its not. Truth is, we have some good, we have some bad. Real concerns. As well as some pedestrian ones. So tonight were going to explore the notion of the two tracks. The track of sanity. All aboard and the track of recklessness. The track of rational. And the track of irrational. So we can make sure to stay on the right one. If were not careful the irrational track will end on the dreaded third rail. First, whats rational . Okay, well, we want stocks to go higher when they beat and raise expectations. We want stocks to go down when they miss expectations or do something that hurts their earnings. When nothing happens, well guess what, we want nothing to happen. We want stocks to d ....
Yesterday when the alleged has happened in ages. S p dipped. Theres this whole idea of any session meaning one thing. Wall street gibberish. Days alone do not set press dents. However, im a big believer in the idea that a year matters. Stop sweating the one day program. You still have an average gain of 11 . Thats not too shabby. Still, i respect this is clearly a what have you done for me market. Well find out what the market is going to do next week when we get the first earnings reports of next week and the first payroll report next friday. These are things that move the stocks. They are the fund mentals of why the stocks go up or down. We must never minimize them. The edge i bring to you. My edge, the edge i bring to you, the edge i spend a whole chapter explaining in my new book, how to read and dissect a Conference Call. How to get down to it. What you need to listen to, the metrics, the key pieces of information, the parts ....