pay bill kristol the big bucks. steve, this broader question, and i know you never do opinion. but if you re looking for danger signs for the republican party in the american suburbs writ large, i know a guy like you could find them. it s right there. it s mecklenburg county. i say it s geographically tiny. it s right here. dan mccready, it s a 12 point win for dan mccready. all the votes are counted there. this is actually better than mccready did last year. he won it by 10 then. he wins it by 12 tonight. in this same slice of the district, trump won by three in 2016. so this is a densely populated area that trump was able to carry as a candidate. but as president twice now in a congressional election, it s gone double digits for the democrat. if you have that happening in mecklenburg county and you have that happening in places like that across the country, that s a big trouble sign. we re flattered to have you both, gentlemen. bill kristol, you ve got class
there were two different storylines that kind of c converged in this district tonight and eech of them is a microcosm of what we talk about nationally. one of the stories was right here in the suburbs that circle might even be too big, the area i m talking about. the densely populated suburbs of south charlotte, about a third of this district is in mecklenburg county. and this is that we talk about it all the time. higher income, college educated suburbs. a place that trump won that portion of the district by three points in 2016. mccready tonight wins it by 13 points. so that s the kind of swing we ve been seeing in metro areas, suburban areas across the country, in the trump era, away from the republicans, toward the democrats. if you had said it at the start of the night, that s where mccready was going to end up in mecklenburg county, you might have thought mccready was going to win the election outright. why didn t he? why did bishop survives? it s the other major storyline in a
be viewed that harshly? it s possible. i mean if you represent a district like south charlotte, davidson is just outside the district, but i ve been there a day or two a week, and i ve seen the race fairly up close. i think steve s analysis is exactly right. the suburban swing wasn t quite big enough. there was also some underperformance among minority voters for the democrat in the district. but at the end of the day, the forest as opposed to the trees, an 11 or 12-point margin for romney or trump goes to a two-point margin for a trump-like candidate, the candidate for whom trump came in in this district. obviously you can t extrapolate exactly from that. i would say just stepping back and looking at the big picture, if this happens across the nation, trump is not going to get re-elected. if this happens across north carolina, trump won t carry the state. that is to say trump carried the state by four points last time when he won the district by 11 or 12.
this district tonight. each of them i think is a microcosm of what we talk about nationally right now. one of the stories was right here in the suburbs. the circle might even be too big, the area i m talking about. the densely populate the suburbs of south charlotte. about a third of this district is in mecklenburg county. this is that we talk about it all the time, higher educated suburbs, a place that trump won that portion of the district by three points in 2016. mccready tonight wins it by 13 points. so that s the kind of swing we ve been seeing in metro areas, suburban areas across the country in the trump era. away from the republicans toward the democrats. if you had said at the start of the night that s where mccready was going to end up in mecklenburg county, you might have thought mccready was going to win the election outright. why didn t he? why did bishop survive? it s the other major story line in american politics we saw here, and that is the rural vote. the eastern part
collar, rural, exurban areas, and that is where the election day vote. wheth it was the election day folk who s went out and came through big for bishop. did it have something to do with the rally trump held on election eve? that s certainly possible. it was a big rural turnout, republican turnout for bishop. two doifferent story lines, bottom line, two-point win for the republican. steve, stay right where you are. i want to expand this conversation to include bill kristol. bill happens to be teaching this semester at davidson university in north carolina. lucky for those students. also lucky for us to bring in bill to talk about this from north carolina. so, bill, i heard it said tonight on cable television that a 51-49 win for the republicans in this district will send such worrisome signals about the