a good bit of 2011, or at least tied. so this is the economy, good economy acting on the electorate. the other big change in virginia that gives the president surprisingly a better chance in virginia than in states like ohio and florida is the enormous growth of minorities in virginia, particularly in northern virginia, particularly college educated, graduate educated. we have gone from about 20% of the statewide vote being all minorities, african-americans, asian americans and hispanic americans at the beginning of the 21st century to about 30%. that s an increase of ten points in a relatively short period of time. fountain president s team can generate a minority vote even approaching 30% again as they did it in 2008, in 2012, it s difficult to see how a republican will carry virginia.