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Last month I introduced you to Aunt Tilly and her simple approach to pre-harvest marketing. Tilly prices 80% of her anticipated new crop corn and soybeans in 20% increments (March, April, May and June), with the remaining 20% priced at harvest. Despite a disastrous 2020, Tilly’s approach has proved effective over time. Simple is good, but I remain uneasy with one aspect of Tilly’s approach: her willingness to take action regardless of the price level. That meant she was active last spring, when a pandemic-induced crash had Nov’20 soybean futures as low as $8.50/bu. and Dec’20 corn futures below $3.50/bu. Ouch. I am a proponent of spring and early summer sales, but I think every producer needs a minimum price objective that is consistent with production costs. ....
I thought the previous five years were difficult. From January of 2015 through the end of 2019, Iowa cash corn prices averaged $3.35/bushel, a figure less than production costs for most Midwest producers. Yes, we had price rallies, but they were, in hindsight, short-lived. There were several long periods with cash prices below $3.20/bu., while the chance to sell $4 cash corn was limited to 7 weeks in the summer of 2019. I thought the period 2015-2019 was difficult, and then came a pandemic in 2020. From mid-March to the end of August, cash corn prices averaged less than $3/bu. and never rose above $3.20. Then, from the ashes of a Covid-19 disaster, sprang one of the best harvest price rallies we’ve seen in over 50 years. Cash corn prices will end the year above $4/bu. ....