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About why they were underperforming, in pennsylvania, 18. the guy didn t raise any money. here, none of those were true and we saw a tremendous shift in the republican land and when you put the numbers together it s just not good for them. again, putting the numbers together. we ve had nine special elections so far and they tell a pretty consistent story. look at the special elections and try to reconcile it with the congressional ballot tests which show republicans they re better because they re not quite on the same level. we have seen republicans close nationwide and the democrats are up by five bones and remember, polls go up and down and despite the polls going up and down the special elections signal has been consistent and base said off the past couple of years maybe we re looking at election results instead of trying to pick it apart. very quickly, any signs about the senate? there is one senate race coming from arizona. at least one coming up in arizona and i would be ....
But i have a question, do those generic ballot tests, do they matter when in virginia, alabama and these specials, it s all about turnout and intensity because republican candidates are getting 97%, 98%, 99% of the vote, they re just more democrats motivated to go vote against trump. the generic ballots don t matter until august of the election year, that s what history teaches us. what you care more about is passionate intensity. when i ran president obama s campaign, the number i looked at everyday was intensity. are my voters more motivated than republican voters? in election after election, you saw it tuesday night where democrats in missouri of all places won a statehouse seat we haven t seen in a generation because our voters are more intense. that s what you saw in virginia and new jersey. you re seeing in the the deepest red states like oklahoma and ....
Ballot tests. they re getting pounded by at least 14 or 15 points by democrats. lock at t look at the state houses in virginia and the state of alabama. that historic contest. you look at historical races into pennsylvania and across the country. republicans are getting walloped because of how offensive donald trump is thinking this is 1972 and there s a southern strategy. there is no southern strategy anymore. it doesn t even work in the deep south. so what s the long-term impact on republicans as the president continues to make racist remarks? it s pretty bleak, i think. and you pointed out in the first hour, alabama is maybe the most on point analogy here. we looked at the exit polls from alabama. we were down there with the ....
Right now going into 2018, mika, just hor risk. every single poll that comes out shows maybe donald trump can get reelected in 2020. but the republicans look like they re going down in 2018. the party is in an interesting position. all this as a new monmouth university poll says if the vote for congress was held today. 51% of americans would praefr democrat. while 36% would choose a republican. a 15-point advantage for the minority party. democrats must flip 24 seats in the house to win a majority. can we go back for a second. we have kristen solstice anderson. mika, look at these numbers, not those numbers, the ones before on the glass now. here we go. 51 to 36. now, kristen solstice sampson, i have been looking at these gen eric ballot tests for some time and maybe there was a time, ....
The grand jury. now, does that mean there s not other crimes? no. you can have false statements to federal investigators. you can have perjury. you can have lying to congress. as you know, joe, one of the things we see in this city is often it s not the original act but the response to the scandal that gets people into trouble. right. right. mark halperin, somebody wrote last night that the one maxim in washington, d.c., that is true, the one saying is it s not the crime, it s the cover-up that gets you in trouble. it s proven time and time again. let s see if that s the case here. mark, let s move from the legal to the political. republicans on capitol hill seem to be at a breaking point as far as their patience with donald trump goes, as they see his approval ratings sink into the 30s and see their own ballot tests against democrats going to ....